So you've noticed the headlines too? About the recession, I mean. Wonderful.
Just thought I'd lend some depressing thoughts. The nominal rate of growth right now (r
n)--at least for 2007--was something like 2.2%. The rate of inflation (r
i was a whopping 4.1%. Please check your closet for Alan Greenspan; I'd be crying if I were him.
By the book--and I
hate the book--the
Fisher equation says that the real rate of return, (r
r) is given by:
rr = rn - ri
Easy peasy. Apply the above data, and the real rate of return for 2007 was -1.9%. Ouch!
But here's why I'm writing this. Whenever some economic downturn comes along--as they do--magazines and articles written by witchdoctor economists scribble off book-formulas like above. Gotta roll them bones. And I start seeing things like the Fisher equation invoked in everyday reading, only to be relied upon to support some completely irrelevant assertion:
"The pantheon of economic equations, derived by people with names more famous than my own, ordains that the actual economy shall behave according to the predictions of incredibly simplified algebraic equations."
Bleh. The Fisher equation shows up in the macroeconomic realm. But if this rate identity holds true, how do microeconomic agents see the world? In the microeconomic world, these equations almost never adjust for taxes. (Even in a recession, Uncle Sam takes his share--and does quiet well.) Looking at the equation from the microeconomic point of view--and assuming r
r is the best nominal rate of return you can get--I would off-the-cuff rewrite the Fisher equation as:
rr = (rt)(rn) - ri, where rt is your tax rate*
Pretend your tax rate is 28.5%--as it is for many Americans. This brings your real rate of return down to a paltry -2.53%. Guess my point is, in REAL-real terms it's worse than you think. People
know they get taxed. Right?
Suppose you invest $10,000 at the above nominal rate. The nominal profit from that $10,000 is about $220. After taxes, your nominal profit would be about $157. Adjusting for inflation, your real profit is $151. But wait--there's more! Your original $10,000 is now worth about $9,600 because of inflation.
That's right: the investment's value actually dropped considerably. But you'll have more physical dollars (or, at least on paper somewhere). And according to our tax laws, you have will have the exquisite privilege of paying taxes! Because the IRS doesn't let you account for "inflation tax" when calculating gain. (Not that it necessarily should...)
Sucks.
Ever played Monopoly? The rules affect the outcome of the participants playing the game. The economy is no different. If inflation is at a 30-year high, pumping $200 billion dollars into the economy is... well... what the hell? If anything, the Fed should be doing the exact opposite. Things that the U.S. should fix if it really cared about the economy: (1) Federal Reserve system, (2) Internal Revenue Code.
Hope maybe my rambling wasn't too incoherent. Happy St. Patty's day. Drink a beer: the economy is depending on it.
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*In reality, the tax rate changes as a function of gain received. Since this is an illustrative analysis about rates, wave a magic wand over the marginal tax rate and call it a constant.